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As a strengthening category 1 (90 mph sustained winds) Hurricane Ida enters the Gulf of Mexico from the Western Caribbean, I thought now a good time to briefly look back at my tropical outlook — from October — for the rest of the season.
Oct 1: The chance of another hurricane this year is statistically high — about 75 percent chance for October and November combined. The chance that any such hurricane becomes a major (Category 3+) during an El Niño October and November is significantly lower.
Ida is only the third hurricane of the season, and it is somewhat rare for November in an El Niño year. But it seems to have followed statistical averages from October when there was a 75 percent chance of seeing an additional hurricane this season.
 Oct 1: Based on climatology, and backed up with how the season has progressed thus far, we are probably down to the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico (mainly eastern sections) as far as possible U.S. threats go. A rogue storm, unlikely severe, could affect the East Coast but increasing westerlies in autumn should prevent that.
The Western Caribbean is one spot typically unaffected by increasing westerlies as autumn progresses. Even during an El Niño year that can have a generally unfavorable amount of shear, there will be periods of calmer atmospheric conditions. Systems tend to fester in the Western Caribbean for days or longer before developing. Ida did this and then quickly ramped up before its first landfall and then again upon re-entry into the Caribbean.
Oct 1: The United States may face a tropical storm or transitional-cyclone landfall to close the season. I do not foresee a hurricane strike on the country, though it is not impossible to get one — likely no higher than Category 1 — to do so.
Well, we’ll have see on this, but considering the forecast was made over a month ago it seems to be quite accurate. The National Hurricane Center is currently predicting a storm with hurricane force winds to impact the United States AFTER extratropical transition has begun.
Cooler waters ahead of the system in the Gulf of Mexico and increasing shear along a trough moving through should push the process of transition or disruption along quickly once it begins, but it is still possible the storm could hit as a hurricane at landfall – especially if we can see it get above category 2 strength over the next 12 hours. My current thoughts are that Ida is likely to hit the U.S. coast no stronger than a tropical storm.
Satellite image from NAVY/NRL. Ida forecast image as of 10 a.m., November 8, NHC via Wunderground.
I’m still around, I have just been lost in study recently — each turn on the road of life (lol) presents previously unexpected destinations. I hope to get back to my originally planned schedule (perhaps with some modifications) as soon as possible. As always, I can be found at the Capital Weather Gang if you’re missing me!
And, this was the sunset yesterday here in D.C… looks good even from my window.
Late last week I crossed path with some deer here in Washington, D.C. I was on my way home from work in the evening looking for some early-fall color. Though I did not end up with much on that end, I was happy to have a chance to photograph some unexpected wildlife. Check out a set of photos and a little about deer in the city on The Washington Post.
Almost on cue per my October tropical outlook of 10 days ago, the Atlantic showed some renewed life this week. The first of two named storms was the unusually-located Tropical Storm Grace, later followed by a — now typical of 2009 — short-lived and disorganized system that developed and died near the Caribbean Islands.
 Tropical Storm Grace started as a disturbed area of weather well off in the northeast Atlantic near the Azores on October 2. It was momentarily caught in a region of lighter winds aloft and generated tropical characteristics. Though noted at times by the National Hurricane Center, it was not really “on the radar” for development until late on October 4 when an eye-like feature surrounded by deep convection was noted on satellite.
Grace was quickly named a tropical storm with winds sustained at 65 mph. For the rest of the night of October 4 and into 5, grace continued to maintain an eye-like feature. The storm peaked at 70 mph and was quickly absorbed into a frontal system as it was nearing the British Isles.
It is unusual to have a storm form this far north in the Atlantic where sea surface temperatures are below the threshold typically needed for tropical development, but it does happen. Most recently Tropical Storm Laura (2008) and Tropical Storm Jerry (2007) formed over the northern reaches of the Atlantic.
Though the first advisory on Grace was at 40.2 N, the NHC believes the storm actually developed prior, which makes sense given its presentation at the time of naming.
Tropical Storm Henri formed a short time after Grace and never became much, like its cousins Tropical Storm Ana and Tropical Storm Erika. In what has been a common occurrence with several storms this year, including the two just mentioned, Henri only briefly attained convection near the center of circulation. Much of the time, strong wind shear kept thunderstorm activity east and north of the center.
Along with the burst of tropical activity, summer briefly returned to the Middle Atlantic — including here in D.C. — this week. Ahead of a strong cold front moving into the area from the Ohio Valley, south and southwest winds transported a brief shot of mild air into the area. Combined with full sunshine, temperatures rose to between 10 and 15 degrees above average for the date across the Washington and Baltimore metros.
On October 10, National Airport (DCA) hit 85F , Dulles (IAD) reached 87F and Baltimore-Washington (BWI) hit 83F. A day of Indian Summer for sure, but not quite on par of just two years ago when temperatures rose to record highs of 94F at both DCA and IAD.
While we got a quick warm snap here in the D.C. area, Denver saw the opposite as a cold Canadian high pressure allowed unseasonably frigid weather to descend on the area. This morning, according to NWS Boulder, Denver recorded a low of 17 that shattered the previous record of 25 set back in 1905.
This quick-hitting but severe cold snap — it brought a little bit of snow too — shut down Game 3 of the National League Division Series in Denver today. In addition to the 105-year-old record low being broken, the record low-maximum temperature for the day is 34F. With Denver sitting in the mid-20s and having a high of 26F as of 7 p.m. local time, it’s a good bet today is an all around record cold holder when said and done.
The visible satellite image above is of Tropical Storm Grace on October 5, from NAVY/NRL.
I have not chimed in on the Najibullah Zazi story too much lately, mainly because not a whole lot of new information has come out and also because many of my original thoughts have been corroborated as more information flows from the case.
 Today, the Associated Press wrote that U.S. intelligence officials were first tipped off on Zazi by CIA agents who were monitoring him because of contact he had with senior Al Qaeda members. Attorney General Eric Holder also reiterated foreign terrorist involvement when he said, “[t]here certainly was an Al Qaeda connection.”
Additionally, previously mentioned interest in renting U-Haul trucks seems to have not been confined to the Queens area. 9News Denver confirmed, through several sources, that Zazi is shown on video attempting to rent a U-Haul truck in the days before his departure for NYC. However, U-Haul representatives have not independently confirmed this story.
The level of interest the Zazi investigation attained in the White House was seemingly quite high. According to the Washington Post, John Brennan, President Obama’s counterterrorism man, briefed him up to three or four times daily as Zazi drove across country to NYC prior to September 11 and then returned to the Denver area.
In a speech today to the National Counterterrorism Center, President Obama mentioned the Zazi case when he said, “We’ve seen your success here in America in the last several weeks. You’ve stayed vigilant. You watched for signs. You stitched together the intelligence. You worked together, across organizations, as one team. And then — arrests in Denver and New York, and still more in Illinois and Texas, have made us safer.”
More about Zazi and his influences has come to light, including childhood associations with imam Saifur Rahman Halimi, a former representative of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. Hekmatyar, a Mujahideen leader during the Soviet invasion fought against U.S.-friendly – i.e., Ahmad Shah Massoud — forces before 9/11 and has called for attacks against the United States since while also aligning himself with Al Qaeda.
Some details regarding Zazi’s apparent attempts to blend in and elude law enforcement have been brought forward by a resident of Manchester, New Hampshire that supposedly met “Omar” Zazi when visiting the Denver area with friends. The New Hampshire Union Leader details the account of Dylan Hall’s time spent with Zazi.
In his interview regarding his crossing paths with Zazi, Hall said he “would never have guessed in a million years that this guy was actually a terrorist.” Hall also recalled ribbing ‘Omar,’ saying he and his friends joked about his “Al Qaeda beard.”
The Zazi case is now widely believed to be the most serious plot against the U.S. homeland since 9/11, authorities think there is no imminent threat and that it has been thoroughly disrupted. Additional arrests are still expected — several individuals remain under surveillance and the federal grand jury has been meeting to consider further charges.
While this plot remains troubling in its apparent sign that someone with access to the United States and free passage around the world can still be recruited into Al Qaeda’s ranks to carry out attacks, it also highlights a problem for Al Qaeda. Though there is apparent symbolism in the Afghan connection given the present U.S. “occupation” of Muslim land, it may also be the wrong avenue if Al Qaeda is to be successful.
Post 9/11, we have heard much about Al Qaeda recruiting “blond, blue-eyed terrorists” who would not necessarily trigger suspicion. Zazi certainly does not fit that mold. While Zazi’s arrest was clearly tied to increasing intelligence capabilities on the ground, and coordination between distinct entities within the intelligence community, the image and network behind it do not appear too much different than 9/11.
If it is true that Al Qaeda’s prestige is fading, it makes sense that those connected to a long-term conflict zone like Afghanistan and the border region of Pakistan will be the main candidates for foreign involvement in an attack attempt on U.S. soil. The history of U.S. influence in the region has likely caused others with bin Laden-like aspirations.
The Zazi case goes a long way in showing that intelligence gained overseas is as important to protecting America as militarily holding a geographic region in a country. It also shows that having a competent partner can be valuable.
Until the Afghan police forces and government step up, we must re-focus on helping those structures to develop and we cannot abandon the larger cause of defeating Al Qaeda and their supporters or we may lose our enhanced capabilities in Pakistan as well.
Photo: File image of Afghan warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. Source, BBC.
Unless you reside in the Asia-Pacific, this week featured relatively benevolent weather around Earth — particularly here in the United States. But Typhoons Ketsana and Parma, plus several earthquake disasters, struck our friends on the other side of the globe.
What eventually became Typhoon Ketsana was already lashing the Philippines as a weak tropical storm this time last week. Ketsana would later wrap up into a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds before slamming into Vietnam.
In the Philippines, Ketsana was an historic rainmaker in an area that sees a lot of rain. The capital city of Manila was particularly hard hit. An incredible 13.4” of rain that fell in six hours led to a new record 24-hour total for the city at 16.7” (which really fell in 12 hours).
Unlike many tropical cyclones that produce major flooding, Ketsana did not move particularly slowly across the Philippines. Instead, an intense core of rain traveled right over the country and targeted the population of Manila. Rain fell at rates — 2”+ for hours on end — at which it could not safely run-off. This led to massive urban, stream and river flooding.
Ketsana displaced at least 450,000 people in the Philippines and around 3 million were affected in some way by the storm. As of yesterday, the death toll from the storm in that country alone was right around 300 people. But Ketsana was only getting started and had warm water to travel over on its way to another landfall.
In Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos, winds with Ketsana were a bigger issue than in the Philippines, but it brought the region significant flooding and storm surge as well. Several hundred appear to have been killed, and thousands displaced, across these three countries in addition to those who died in the Philippines.
With Ketsana out of the way, Typhoon Parma slammed the Philippines today. While the news is not all good, it is better than it could have been. Parma attained strong Category 4 status, with winds sustained at 150 mph, and was expected to impact as a Category 4. The storm weakened more than guidance suggested and Parma made landfall as a Category 1 or Category 2 with winds somewhere around between 90 and 105 mph.
Parma hit an area that is no stranger to typhoon strikes, and while some flooding is likely due to the slow movement of the storm, the northern tip of the Philippines can handle a storm much better than Manila and surrounds did with Ketsana. Another storm, Typhoon Melor, has spared Saipan and is expected to eventually pass quite close — or maybe into — to the coast of Japan.
In last week’s Wx This Week, I spent some time on the drought that had affected the Southeast United States for several years in light of recent Atlanta flooding. This week, Columbia University released a study on the causes of the Southeast U.S. drought. An interesting conclusion: It was not caused by climate change.
The researchers at Columbia studied past drought indicators, heavily focusing on tree ring records. They found that this drought was on par with or less prolonged and significant than many others. The main difference is a growing population that has driven demand up. Resources that could once last through a sustained drought are now exhausted much quicker.
Though largely dismissed in the study due to the tropical Pacific not having much overall influence on area, there is some correlation between El Niño winters and increased precipitation over portions of the Southeast U.S. In recent history Niños have tended to produce wet winter into spring periods while promoting a drier summer. Signs would tend to indicate recent wetter patterns can continue for a while.
September was rather typical, if not a little dry, in D.C. as far as the weather goes, according to National Weather Service Forecast Office Sterling, Va. Temperatures were near average as was precipitation – even if much of that rain (1.61″) came in one day this time last week.
As one works west of D.C. things get gradually drier as rains of recent have not amounted to as much. The U.S. Drought Monitor continues to show some low-level drought conditions in portions of Maryland and West Virginia with dry conditions east into Northern Virginia. Since last week, this area has decreased a bit.
We’re heading solidly into real autumnal weather now in D.C. Daytime temperatures fall from an average of 74F for a high and 56F for a low on Oct. 1, to 63F for a high and 44F for a low on Halloween.
Image: Visible satellite of Typhoon Parma nearing landfall in the Philippines on October 3, from NAVY/NRL Tropical Cyclone Center.
After a slew of storms from mid-August into early September, we have run into several very quiet weeks for the usual peak and post-peak period in a typical year. As anticipated early last month, overall development has been minimal and the effects of El Niño are becoming greater on the tropical Atlantic.
Other than Hurricane Fred (see coverage in Wx This Week) all September events were very weak and struggled for life throughout their cycles. Both Erika and TD 8 were ripped apart before they became much of anything.
But El Niño is not the only factor at play and there is a decent chance we see at least one more shot at getting a few more storms on the list. The odds we finish well below climatology are now very high and the odds of a significant storm hitting the United States are increasingly lower.
I expect a possible semi-active period to begin shortly and last perhaps through the month. “Active” may mean only one or two storms in a season like this, but it could be upwards of three or four.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) — a 30 to 60 day tropical cycle that can be tracked in the Pacific and Atlantic — was last favorable for storm development over the Atlantic during the burst of storms that began in mid-August. It is scheduled to become favorable again shortly as it treks east.
Will the MJO wave be enough? It may be, but we are unlikely to see a burst of storms like we saw during its last passage. We are now past the typical Cape Verde season, which directly spawned four named storms this year, and one tropical depression.
The chance of another hurricane this year is statistically high — about 75 percent chance for October and November combined. The chance that any such hurricane becomes a major (Category 3+) during an El Niño October and November is significantly lower.
My overall assessment from September stands.
 Since we have moved forward a month, the African wave threats are basically done. And based on the rather continual stream of cold fronts already this fall, it seems much of the Atlantic is closed for business. The mostly inhospitable environment that has included persistent dry air argues the same.
Based on climatology, and backed up with how the season has progressed thus far, we are probably down to the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico (mainly eastern sections) as far as possible U.S. threats go. A rogue storm, unlikely severe, could affect the East Coast but increasing westerlies in autumn should prevent that.
El Niño’s growing effects will battle whatever favorable pattern is in place in the Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico has shown little sign of life this year. While many Niño’s have featured at least one late-season storm forming in the Western Caribbean and shooting north or northeast, very few found themselves in prime environments for strengthening.
I believe this season will conclude with less than 10 named storms, and 8 +/- 1 is most likely at this time. To find a season with similarly low numbers recently, we have to look back to 1997 during what would eventually become a very strong El Niño. Coincidentally, the names that year appear quite familiar.
The United States may face a tropical storm or transitional-cyclone landfall to close the season. I do not foresee a hurricane strike on the country, though it is not impossible to get one — likely no higher than Category 1 — to do so.
Images: 2009 hurricane season map through October 1 from Weather Underground. October climatology graphic obtained from NOAA’s Tropical Cyclone Climatology Web site.
Last Friday, at the G-20 summit in Pittsburgh, President Obama made a stark early-morning announcement while flanked by Prime Minister Gordon Brown of the United Kingdom and President Nicolas Sarkozy of France. The news? Iran, previously of George Bush’s “axis of evil,” has a covert uranium enrichment facility buried underground that is about to go operational. When up and running, it could complete material for at least one nuclear bomb per year.
 This well-timed announcement came days after Iran submitted the plants existence to the IAEA and days before a P5-plus-1 meeting with Iran scheduled for October 1. The five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany make up the P5-plus-1, and these countries have sought a halt to Iranian uranium enrichment in exchange for helping Iran develop an atomic energy plan for the country. Iran has refused and insisted its program is peaceful.
Put bluntly, the three leaders took the occasion of the G-20 to send a powerful message in the face of continued skepticism by China and Russia regarding additional and stronger sanctions against Iran.
After Obama’s announcement, France’s Sarkozy indicated new sanctions are coming if the Iranians do not come clean and disavow their nuclear weapons program by December. The new proposal may include, but are not limited to, new sanctions on state banks, against the energy and technology sectors, and targeting petroleum fuel.
A key sanction being pushed for by the United States, the freeze of Iranian imports of finished petroleum products, will likely remain difficult to attain. Though a fuel import sanction could severely damage the leadership of Iran due to its lack of refining capability, it could also have trickle-down consequences.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was interviewed by Larry King while in the United States attending the UN General Assembly. In the interview, Ahmadinejad proved — as usual — cunning, determined, and well aware of the current global situation.
Among many defiant statements in the interview was one regarding additional sanctions against his country. “Now, a second point that I want to say is that whoever sanctions Iran is, in fact, sanctioning itself. The time for sanctions has passed. It belongs to the previous generation. And it’s one of those things that needs change,” Ahmadinejad said.
Ahmadinejad apparently feels he and Iran can survive without relationships with all of the major world powers. Or he knows that China and Russia may never fully get aboard the U.S. plan that could possibly prevent him from obtaining the bomb.
China has had trade relations with Iran for some time, and the amount of money changing hands has only grown exponentially over the course of the last decade. China is not necessarily in position to potentially lose out on lucrative deals, particularly those related to its growing need for oil. As a rapidly developing nation, and one already emerging quickly from global economic crisis, China needs energy and lots of it.
At the same time, China does not want an Iran with nuclear weapons. China has cooperated with the UN Security Council by providing intelligence on the Iranian program in the past. China has already watched regional neighbors enter the nuclear-armed-states club and does not enjoy the insecurity it brings. It is not in their best interest to have conflict nearby, or be involved in conflict, when there are skyscrapers to build and industries to nourish.
China has a dilemma: Is unfettered access to fuel right now more important than regional and global security that will allow continued long term development? The history of this issue says China will try to keep both sides as happy as possible. It seems unlikely the Chinese would fully back additional sanctions on Iran given their dilemma, but they may not veto any such declaration.
Russia understands the nuclear game as much as any other country on Earth. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has been in talks to re-haul START with President Obama through much of the year. They have discussed how to decrease numbers of weapons in the world and stop proliferation.
Like China, Russia has trade relations with Iran and also an interest in curbing U.S. power both regionally and globally. In some ways that is a wish both nations share with Iran. At the same time, Russia is has established itself on the modern world stage much more significantly than China. Russia appears more likely to back stronger sanctions on Iran given its perceived role as a co-founder and defender of norms in the global community.
Following a series of missile tests by Iran this week that included launches of both short-and long-range missiles, Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov weighed in. He said, it is “worrisome, when missile launches happen against the backdrop of unresolved situation concerning Iran’s nuclear program.” The Kremlin has also announced that Iran’s covert facility is in violation of the UN Security Council and it must prove its intentions are peaceful.
For now, it seems that at least a symbolic move toward the Western position is coming from Russia and China. But if new sanctions are issued: Will they work as intended or is Iran about to have a nuclear bomb?
Sanctions can hurt the civilian population more than those in power and their goals. Sanctions are not a guarantee of conflict resolution or an end to Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Conflicts where the United States has backed sanctions and they failed to solve much if anything through them include Cuba, Iraq, and North Korea among others. The sanctioning process is ever-evolving and is now more targeted than in the past, but it still leaves much to be desired.
Heavily sanctioning Iran threatens to further alienate a shifting demographic that may be trending friendlier. Any punishments should be strongly directed at the governance structure and military apparatus. A block of fuel imports may crush the economy of Iran, which could potentially lead to change, but it could also strengthen public resolve of a need for a nuclear program for “energy” and feed what has become a nationalist cause.
While it is not easy to sit back and watch Iran develop a nuclear weapon, the U.S. government and its allies should work closely to decide what they will do if and when it happens while trying to talk Iran out of it in the meantime. Ensuring that a nuclear arms race does not spread through the Middle East – and perhaps further – should be the highest goal. Stopping Iran entirely can be a secondary goal since it seems far less likely at the moment.
Iran must understand that, despite rhetoric from its leaders, there are massive consequences for using a nuclear weapon or giving one to a friendly group to use. It should be made known that any weapon used would be able to be traced back (even if we cannot be certain) to its source and it would mean a sure and quick end to the regime through similar means.
The alternative to diplomacy and helping foster an Iranian youth which yearns for democratic movement is a belligerent Iran with nuclear weapons and nuclear weapons technology. Letting Iran develop and test a weapon behind our backs is the worst of the options. Talking might not — and probably won’t — work when it comes to stopping the creation of the bomb, but it might help quite a bit once considerations of what to do with the bomb come into play.
Image: Satellite shot of the newly announced Iranian uranium enrichment facility about 100 miles from Tehran. The facility is built into a mountain and is on a military site. Source, CNET.
On Wednesday, September 23, portions of Eastern Australia — including Sydney — faced the worst dust storm the area has seen in seven decades. Scientists say it was the worst ever recorded by instruments. It produced an eerie and very thick red haze that blocked out the sun, reduced visibilities, and caused unhealthy air.
Why was the Australian dust storm so big?
The main reason it happened when it did was an intense storm spinning off the coast between Australia and New Zealand. Since winds in the Southern Hemisphere rotate clockwise around a low-pressure system, the storm whipped up dust over the mostly-dry Lake Eyre basin and surrounds, pushing it toward the tropical coast and then out to sea. El Niño may also have played a role, as it can bring intense oceanic storms to the area.
However, drought is the long term cause. Australia is arid by nature, but a very serious drought has gripped portions of the continent, including the main agricultural basin of the country, for a decade or longer.
The prospect of much relief for Australia any time soon is at least temporarily stunted by the El Niño now in place. While warmer sea surface temperatures and a relaxing of the trade winds can help strong ocean storms form, El Niño is also usually dry for Australia.
Scientists are also studying potential environmental impacts of the event, partially because it originated near a massive uranium mine. That angle aside, it is possible (or even likely) the dust storm will have ill-effects for marine life — including coral reefs — off the coast.
Another area recently plagued by drought has been the Southeast United States. While many places in the area have trended wetter the last year, and a significant portion of the drought has been declared dead for months, weather of recent has been feast or famine.
 A week of rains that began on September 14, and brought as much as five to 10 inches of rain to the Atlanta area, was capped by several days of intense training storms late last weekend. The result was major flooding across portions of Georgia, including Atlanta.
After the initial barrage of rain, the region was hit by a squeeze play of Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico moisture combined with a high pressure system to the north which held storminess in place. This brought additional heavy rains last Saturday, Sunday and Monday.
Additional rainfall totals near and past one foot during that time period created massive stream and river rises. Damage, destruction and at least 11 deaths – nine in Georgia alone — were the result. More rain is hitting parts of the area today.
The aforementioned Southeast U.S. drought, which persists in parts of the Carolinas, has at times extended north through the Middle Atlantic area. As recently as the beginning of 2009, the Washington area was in moderate drought conditions.
Many spots, mainly near the Mason Dixon line and to the north, have seen decent rains this summer and into fall. The Washington area and places south continue to swing back and forth between rainy and dry stretches. U.S. drought monitor began to re-introduce abnormally dry conditions into parts of the area this week, but a system currently arriving looks to put at least a temporary halt to the recent drying trend.
As the Washington region heads toward winter, and the El Niño pattern gets better developed, it seems that any dry “worries” should continue to dwindle.
Capital Weather Gang’s Jason Samenow suggests a quiet Atlantic Hurricane season plays a role in a dry summer in the Middle Atlantic — I agree. The arriving storm aside, El Niño’s help in pumping up the sub-tropical jet stream should become more apparent over time. This will likely throw the D.C. area numerous precipitation threats through the winter.
While fall’s start felt more summer-like than anything in the D.C. area, with highs rising into the 80s, it began with an early-season snowfall in portions of the continental United States.
Snowflakes fell all the way into the suburbs of Denver and some resort-level elevations received close to one foot of the white stuff on Monday into Tuesday. Additional heavy snow expected midweek ended up not materializing. Snow in the mountains in September is not rare by any means, but it’s a sure sign that winter is on the horizon.
Satellite image of Eastern Australia on September 23, 2009 showing massive dust clouds pushing east. Source, NASA. Surface feature map of the United States during the Southeast U.S. flooding episode. Source, National Weather Service.
Najibullah Zazi, previously arrested for lying to the government, has been charged with conspiracy to use weapons of mass destruction in federal court for the apparent plot to detonate multiple home-made explosives.
 As expected here, the original charge was only the beginning and the new charge — assuming no others come — holds a maximum sentence of life in prison.
Presumed involved, but seemingly on a lesser scale, Ahmad Afzali was granted bond on $1.5 million. Afzali was released today, and like Najibullah’s father, he will be monitored and granted limited movements prior to his trial for lying to investigators.
Many more clues emerged with the new charge levied against Najibullah. Some continue to be troubling, others seem to indicate that authorities believe the threat may in fact be neutralized in this case.
Previously reported FBI investigations of Home Depots and pool supply stores, where muriatic acid can be obtained, were apparently only part of the story.
Court documents related to the WMD charge mention that Zazi, and others, “purchased unusually large quantities of hydrogen peroxide and acetone products from beauty supply stores in the Denver area.”
These items — mixed with muriatic acid — are ingredients to create Triacetone Triperoxide (TATP) explosives used in past overseas attacks including the London subway bombings of 2005. Richard Ried’s failed bombing of an airliner was also made from TATP.
The documents state that Zazi rented a hotel room on September 6 in the Denver area where he tested heating the mixture to make it more powerful. FBI teams who later examined the stove in the hotel room confirmed chemical residue.
Though Zazi is believed to have been trained in explosives by Al Qaeda, or associated groups in the FATA of Pakistan, federal officials indicate he had not necessarily mastered the craft, or at least was unsure if he had.
Nevertheless, he researched where to purchase muriatic acid in New York and set off for the city. The rest is history. So, was this a plan for a September 11 anniversary terror extravaganza? Maybe.
A counterterrorism official in Colorado told the Denver Post that no further arrests were expected in this case in that state. Since Zazi only recently moved to the area, it could be that he was the only person directly involved locally. Reports as recently as yesterday indicated many were still being monitored in New York.
Some questions remain: If Zazi was about to execute an attack on NYC, and he was interested in purchasing muriatic acid in Queens, did he have the other needed “beauty store” products needed on him (in the vehicle)? Accompanying documents to the indictment leave that part out if he did.
Additional arrests still seem possible in NY, but the apparent “error” on the part of the New York Police Department may have kept any associates of Zazi from being able to get their hands on explosive material. As long as the finished material, documents or hands on know-how were not passed along then this specific plot may have been permantly disrupted.
That leads to another question: Are the supposed bombers still wandering free? A real possibility. And if the plot was broken up before the FBI meant to, there may not be enough evidence to bring many additional individuals down. It is still an active investigation, and the history of evidence being sealed till arrests come argues for that continuing if further action is taken.
Still, it seems authorities are on a general heightened alert in as evidenced by the numerous bulletins sent in the last week. This morning, not too far from my location, a bomb scare involving a backpack near the D.C. Islamic Center, shut down a main thoroughfare for much of the morning commute.
Two other apparent plots — these more common of attempted acts in the U.S. since 9/11 — also came to light. In Dallas, Tx. and Springfield, Ill., men placed inert car bombs near large buildings in an attempt to destroy and kill.
A 29-year-old by the name of Michael Finton (AKA Talib Islam) was arrested after 2 years of monitoring followed by an introduction to a special agent who set him up with the fake car bomb.
NBC Nightly News reported that Finton believed the car was holding one ton of explosive and would detonate following a cell phone call. The vehicle was parked next to the federal courthouse in Springfield.
Late this evening, another similar story emerged from Dallas. This time, 19-year-old Hosam Maher Husein Smadi from Jodan attempted to explode a car bomb next to the 60-story Fountain Place.
As with the case of Michael Finton, Smadi ended up dealing with special agents instead of similar-minded individuals. Unlike the Illinois case, Smadi is an illegal immigrant. There have been considerable concerns since 9/11 that our long and still-porous borders would allow folks interested in jihad to arrive on our soil.
Just more reminders that the threat remains, and that law enforcement abilities regarding the threat are much greater than they were a decade ago.
See all posts on the terrorism plot centered on Najibullah Zazi.
Photo: Najibullah Zazi is hauled away by the FBI in Aurora, Colo., last Saturday. Source, AP/The Denver Post.
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