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Summary
8/03/04 - Current National Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW
(Top) 1. Attack threat windows - (8/3/04) An operative, described as "credible" by British intelligence, told his debriefers that the attack would take place "60 days before the presidential election" on Nov. 2, according to a former senior National Security Council official. On Sept. 2 (60 days prior) President George W. Bush is expected to address the Republican National Convention at Madison Square Garden.. The news report is not specific, but the general context suggests that the operative was one of those recently captured by Pakistan. Secondary window: Between now and Nov 2, 2004. This window is based upon AQ threats to disrupt our national elections. However, OBL has released a tape (see below) and that could open the gates for the next round(s) of attacks worldwide. International (7/31/04)
OBL has reportedly released a new message condemning the Jews, the U.S.
and countries supporting the US in Iraq. Interesting note is that Spain
is still included on the ‘hate’ list of countries. Guess
OBL didn’t get the memo on the change in leadership there after
311. (8/02/04) A courier has been reportedly been intercepted inside of Iraq with a message from Al-Zarqawi attempting to contact Bin laden. Iraq - (8/1/04) I’ve left Iraq out because of the daily activity levels. However on Sunday, 5 out of 6 (the 6th failed to go off) car bombs exploded at Christian Churches throughout Iraq within 15 minutes of each other. This is a significant change in targets and the attacks bear the trademark of AQ. They occurred after OBL’s latest message and seem to be linked to the most recent al-Masri warning to Italy. Italy. – (8/1/04) Associated Press. A new warning from Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades gave Italy another 15 days to withdraw its troops from Iraq before sending "waves of earthquakes to erase your country," according to a statement sent to the London-based Al-Quds Al-Arabi newspaper, an Arabic newspaper Sunday. It was the fifth threat since the end of the European ‘truce’ on July 15. The statement urged the Italians to remember the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist bombings in the United States and the bombs in Madrid last March. Rome has been specifically mentioned in other threats. Previous threats issued July 2, 16, 26, 28 & 30. An additional communiqué from Tawhid on July 25th threatens Australia and reiterates the al Masri threat to Italy. In the face of these numerous threats, if something doesn’t happen soon, then al-Masri and AQ risks losing face. Some U.S. officials and some terrorism experts believe Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades, lacks credibility and has only tenuous ties to al-Qaida. England (8/3/04) BRITAIN’S security forces were yesterday put on "heightened readiness" for a potential terrorist attack, after detailed al-Qaeda plans to attack UK targets were uncovered. Although in the case of the UK no specific targets have been named, e-mails about attacks on both the US and Britain had been found on a computer belonging to Ahmed Khalfan Ghailani, wanted for the 1998 twin US embassy bombings in Africa. The intelligence gathered over the weekend pointed to al-Qaeda tactics of a car or lorry bomb. Japan – nothing new to report Australia – No new threats issued today. Uzbekistan (8/1/04) — Remains on high alert after at least two Uzbeks were killed in suicide attacks at the U.S. and Israeli embassies on Friday. Turkey – (7/28/04) News services reported that airport security went to level ‘yellow’ second highest based upon threat that AQ would launch a 911 style attack or blow-up an airliner. Iran – (8/2/04) Iran’s determination to continue with its nuclear program continues to keep tensions high with the west. Syria – Information suggests that they are supplying terrorists with rocket components to attack Israeli targets from S. Lebanon. Israel - (8/3/04) The Palestinian militant group Hamas has issued a video threatening daily attacks on the Israeli town of Sderot unless soldiers halt a month long operation aimed at stopping rocket attacks. . United States (8/3/04) Additional information from the AQ computer geek identified other sites in the US and apparently in England. Current media reports are dismissing the 8/1 alert because indications are that the surveillance info is in some cases pre-911. However, surveillance of the 911 targets began 6 years before the attack. Additionally, it appeared that some of the target data had been recently updated. Secondly, media reporting that DHS has stated that the data is from multiple, confirming sources. Additional unverified information coming from Pakistan suggests that an attack may be planned for the week of the RNC in NYC. This could be the reason behind the image of OBL and a map of NYC with explosions marked at various locations. With the heightened awareness around these targets, AQ will either have to cancel, delay or go after secondary targets. AQ has developed a desire to time attacks to influence the electorate based upon their successful Madrid bombings. However, there is speculation on whether or not an AQ strike before the elections would help or hurt the President. Either case, it would be a big gamble for AQ, especially since our LEA and intel folks are looking for it. (8/2/04) The plans for attacks in the U.S. and U.K were found in e-mails on the computer of Ahmed Khalfan Ghailani, a Tanzanian arrested July 25. Also, Pakistani authorities have in custody another top Al-Qaida agent. Muhammad Naeem Noor Khan, was described by a Pakistani intelligence official as a 25-year-old computer engineer, arrested July 13, who had used and helped to operate a secret Qaeda communications system where information was transferred via coded messages. (8/1/04) DHS increased the threat level to Code Orange for the financial services sector in New York City, Northern New Jersey and Washington, D.C. More details under Dept of Homeland Secty below. 2. Attack method. A. (8/2/04) DHS briefing of 8/1 (see below) indicates attack method using car or truck bombs. Since 5 specific locations were identified, it would be assumed that they would be hit in a coordinated manner. The recent Madrid attacks indicated that AQ has worked up to a higher number of coordinated efforts. As described by DHS, this has the makings for a classic AQ strike – 5 targets in regionally close proximity, somewhat lower on the radar screen than other, more key locations, thus with the potential to be less well guarded. (8/2/04) Nearly 1.5 tons of stolen ammonium nitrate are unaccounted for in North Carolina. Theft was reported on July 9. Mixed with fuel oil, ammonium nitrate is a favored ingredient used in al Qaeda truck bombs. Nearly a month after the theft was reported, 59 bags (2,950 pounds) of the volatile fertilizer are still unaccounted for. Is it uncertain if the theft is related to the current heighten threat status of NY, NJ and DC but is a troubling possibility. B. Discussion in TM, internet and from national news sources indicate continued AQ interest in aircraft hijacking. Thoughts range from using far more people to putting together a ‘weapon’ of some sort in a toilet. This weapon could be an explosive device or a chemical of some sort. Another aspect is having more terrorists on the plane to help keep the passengers subdued if they can take over the craft. One piece of the puzzle missing is how the terrorists would get past the reinforced doors to the cockpit. C. (8/3/04) IMHO, AQ nuclear option, though still rumored, does not appear to be as strong given the intel surrounding the 8/1 DHS alert, which indicates a more traditional truck bomb approach. One answer could be that the AQ computer guy did not have access to that ‘compartment’ of the terror planning. However, given that he was the one who set up their secure comms system, for him NOT to be aware would be surprising. Personnel - (7/30/04) DHS is more concerned about terrorists infiltrating into the US from Mexico. This could be why the US Border Patrol is increasing its attention to the southern border. Southern Arizona has been considered by some to be a terrorist haven area. According to the Tombstone AZ newspaper, a total of 77 ME men were captured between June 13th and 21st in S. Arizona. One purpose the infiltration of ME men in to the US could serve would be to supply more people for more initial and follow-on car/truck suicide bomb attacks. The effect of dozens of simultaneous car-bomb attacks at soft targets (malls, amusement parks, sporting events, etc) would create substantial panic as this would reveal to the American people that we are far more vulnerable than the general person on the street thinks we are. A second reason is that the US Moslem community is absent martyr complex and substantial cultural ‘brain washing’ prevalent with the Middle East jihadists and not inclined to commit suicide, thus the bulk of people needed to commit suicide bombings are having to be ‘imported’. With the exception of 911, the suicide car bomb has been the weapon of choice, needing only willing martyrs and the careful accumulation of explosive material (fertilizer, etc). (7/28/04) A South African woman, Farida Goolam Mohamed Ahmed, was picked up in Texas at McAllen Miller International Airport on July 19. She had illegally entered the US via Mexico and is suspected of being associated with Al-Qada. (7/28/04) The American Muslim Holy Land Foundation for Relief and Development charity and seven of its officers were charged Tuesday with providing millions of dollars in support to Hamas, a Palestinian terrorist organization blamed for dozens of suicide bomber attacks in Israel. (7/28/04) Michael Wagner, 44, of San Diego, was arrested this week and said he had knowledge of terrorist activities and people and groups tied to al-Qaida and the Taliban. Wagner also said that he knew about things in the Muslim communities in San Diego that would interest federal authorities. IMHO this guy is a thug wannabe using the terrorist angle to try to get off easier. (7/29/04) The FBI and Orlando Police have confirmed 3 Middle Eastern men were detained last week trying to board a flight at Orlando International Airport. As they were checking in for a flight to Oman at the ticket counter the name of one of the men appeared on a computerized "do-not-fly" list compiled by the Transportation Security Administration. All 3 men were placed into the custody of a federal agent. 4. Significant meetings canceled: A. (8/2/04) None I am aware of. 5. Security
has been heightened in specific cities (8/02/04) Until further notice, trucks are now banned from taking the Williamsburg Bridge into Lower Manhattan. The Holland and Brooklyn-Battery tunnels are now closed to all in-bound commercial traffic. Police in Washington DC announced plans to block all traffic flow around the Capitol, and to search some of the vehicles, to ensure that explosives do not get near the building. GENERAL: (8/01/04) New Mexico officials also decided to raise the threat level for banking and financial companies there, and Massachusetts officials planned to send a letter advising financial institutions to review security measures. Boston, Philly, Seattle, LA. Trains and buses searched - Significant development in east coast towns. Some of this is in response to the upcoming republican convention. Other major financial office centers in many cities are taking additional precautions. Ports are getting a lot more security scrutiny. Diving teams are activity looking for mines, Coast Guard turning away ships as necessary. However, this appears to be in part in line with scheduled increased security posture and not necessarily in response to a specific threat. 6. Military operations. The fleet is deployed conducting various maneuvers and exercises. The F-117s are still deployed in S. Korea. The first national ABM missiles are being installed in Alaska. (7/29/04) Elements of the 2nd Infantry division stationed in Korea are deploying to Iraq as scheduled. (7/29/04) The first successful test of the Israeli Arrow anti-missile system was successfully conducted over the Pacific Ocean from Vandenberg AFB. 7.
Dept of Homeland Scty. “This is the first time we have chosen to use the Homeland Security Advisory System in such a targeted way. Compared to previous threat reporting, these intelligence reports have provided a level of detail that is very specific. The quality of this intelligence, based on multiple reporting streams in multiple locations, is rarely seen and is alarming in both the amount and specificity of the information. “ “While we are providing you with this immediate information, we will continue to update you as the situation unfolds. As of now, this is what we know: reports indicate that al Qaida is targeting several specific buildings, including the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in D.C.; Prudential Financial in Northern New Jersey; and Citigroup buildings and the New York Stock Exchange in New York . Let me assure you, actions to further strengthen security around these buildings are already underway. Additionally, we’re concerned about targets beyond these and are working to get more information. “ “We have talked with the executive leadership of the companies that own these businesses and operate these buildings – the people who know these facilities best. We have told them that, at this time, there is no information that indicates a specific time for these attacks beyond the period leading up to our national elections. “ Other details
now emerging not covered in the briefing is the level of detail the
surveillance of the target locations. Average numbers of pedestrians,
security, structural details, best coffee shops to stop at to permit
surveillance were among the data collected in regards to this threat.
See this link for more details: (7/30/04)
The FBI says they received intelligence late last week that al-Qaida
may have had an attack planned on New Mexico in May, but scrubbed it
because of heightened security. 8. Domestic Terror Currently Not Linked to Jihadists a. None currently identified. 8/05/04
- Current National Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW
(Top) 1. Attack threat windows - (8/3/04) An operative, described as "credible" by British intelligence, told his debriefers that the attack would take place "60 days before the presidential election" which is held on Nov. 2 of this year, according to a former senior National Security Council official. On Sept. 2 (about 60 days prior) President George W. Bush is expected to address the Republican National Convention at Madison Square Garden.. It appears that this ‘early September’ attack window is getting more credibility from government sources to the media. Secondary window: (8/5/04) No change. Between now and Nov 2, 2004. This window is based upon AQ threats to disrupt our national elections. However, OBL has released a tape (see below) and that could open the gates for the next round(s) of attacks worldwide. International (7/31/04) OBL has reportedly released a new message condemning the Jews, the U.S. and countries supporting the US in Iraq. Interesting note is that Spain is still included on the ‘hate’ list of countries. Guess OBL didn’t get the memo on the change in leadership there after 311. Potential actions observed as a result of this message – coordinated bombings in Iraq, more threats against Italy and Europe and increased threat posture in the US Iraq - (8/1/04) I’ve left Iraq out because of the daily activity levels. However on Sunday, 5 out of 6 (the 6th failed to go off) car bombs exploded at Christian Churches throughout Iraq within 15 minutes of each other. This is a significant change in targets and the attacks bear the trademark of AQ. They occurred after OBL’s latest message and seem to be linked to the most recent al-Masri warning to Italy. Italy.
– (8/5/04) Debka reports Italy raises terror alert at international
airports from Bravo to Charlie (high risk). However, Italian officials
said Thursday they have increased security at Rome's civilian airport
-- Leonardo Da Vinci -- because of the large influx of people during
the summer holiday season. They said the threat level has not increased
and Italy remains under high state of alert. England - (8/5/04) Pakistani authorities gave British authorities images of London's Heathrow Airport and other sites that were found on computers belinging to two arrested al-Qaida fugitives, intelligence officials said Thursday. Security has been heightened. (8/4/04) A key al-Qaida figure, Eisa al-Hindi, an al-Qaida leader in Britain was among 13 arrested in raids in Britain on Tuesday, according to a senior U.S. national security official. He said the arrests were made on information obtained following the arrests of al-Qaida suspects in Pakistan. The arrests in Pakistan that led investigators to al-Hindi began in June with the apprehension by Pakistani paramilitary forces of Mussad Aruchi, an al-Qaida operative. The official described the arrest as the initial unraveling of a network of al-Qaida members believed to have been actively planning attacks in the United States and elsewhere. Al-Hindi, according to the official, had access to the detailed surveillance of the five financial institutions in Washington, New Jersey and New York that was stored in the computer of a suspect apprehended earlier in Pakistan. Other al-Qaida operatives outside Britain also had access to the information, the official said. Israel - (8/3/04) The Palestinian militant group Hamas has issued a video threatening daily attacks on the Israeli town of Sderot unless soldiers halt a month long operation aimed at stopping rocket attacks. United States (8/5/04) During this
lull in the rapid developments in this area, I’ve tried to pull together
the main gist of what lead up to and since DHS’ 8/1/04 announcement.
It wouldn’t surprise me if something else come up right after I post
this. Terrorism
Summary 8/16/04 thru 8/28/04
(Top) Current National Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW 1. Attack threat windows 8/28/04 No change since 8/16/04. An operative, described
as "credible" by British intelligence, told his debriefers that
the attack would take place "60 days before the presidential election"
which is held on Nov. 2 of this year, according to a former senior National
Security Council official. On Sept. 2 (about 60 days prior) President
George W. Bush is expected to address the Republican National Convention
at Madison Square Garden. Secondary window: (8/28/04) No change. Between now and Nov
2, 2004. This window is based upon AQ threats to disrupt our national elections.
This window could potentially be extended to Inauguration Day in January
2005. 2. Attack Indicators 8/28/04 As previously reported, there have been communications
chatter, internet, and personnel movement changes that imply that something
may be afoot. However, comments posted by STRATFOR.com suggest that internet
threats have been the least predictive. This was directed at specific threats
and not overall chatter which in intelligence circles are two completely
different things. 3. Current Terrorist Operations Iraq Italy Afghanistan Israel Iran Russia United States 4. Attack method. Details of the plan are allegedly contained in the computer
data obtained after the capture of Khan in Pakistan. Financial institutions
appear to be the current targets. Although there still appears to be an
interest in using passenger jets as missiles, it appears that this next
round of attacks may involve traditional vehicle bombs. Law enforcement
alerts have been issued nationwide for any suspicious activity at private
storage facilities, U-haul and related rental companies and fertilizer and
bomb component retail outlets. Suspicious behavior regarding emergency vehicles
and limousines infer that AQ is evaluating the potential of using these
vehicles too. 8/28/04 General Ralph "Ed" Eberhart, who as head
of the U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM) said "I believe it's just a
matter of time until the terrorists try to use a ... maritime attack against
us," he said. "I believe that attack could come in terms of bringing
a ship into port, whether it's (carrying) high explosives or whether it's
weapons of mass destruction." 5. Personnel 6. Significant meetings canceled: A. (8/28/04) Secretary of State Powell has canceled his
trip to Greece, reportedly by some due to Greek communist protests. 7. Security has been heightened in specific cities 8/12/04 Local hospitals in New Jersey have tightened security
after recent warnings of potential terror attacks, including the possible
use of ambulances as weapons. (8/11/04) NYC, N. NJ and D.C. are still at threat level
ORANGE. Specifically identified targets include the International Monetary
Fund and World Bank in D.C.; Prudential Financial in Northern New Jersey;
and Citigroup buildings and the New York Stock Exchange in New York. Other
potentially targeted sites include - the American Stock Exchange, Nasdaq,
Morgan Stanley, Lehman Bros., Goldman Sachs, the Federal Reserve Bank, Bear
Stearns, the UN, Wachovia, AIG, MetLife and JP Morgan Chase. The TransAmerica
building and the Bank of America Bldg in San Francisco. However, threat
levels were not raised by the DHS for these buildings. GENERAL: Security in the NYC and surrounding areas is very
tight. 8. Military operations. The fleet is deployed in the Pacific / Indian oceans, conducting
various maneuvers and exercises. However, it seems that these exercises
are beginning to wind down and some are en route to their bases. The F-117s are still deployed in S. Korea. 9. Dept of Homeland Scty. 10. Suspicious Domestic Incidents Not Currently
Linked to Specific Terrorism Attempts Terrorism
Summary 8/28/04 thru 8/31/04
(Top) Current National Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW 1. Attack threat windows Secondary window: (8/31/04) No change, no specific threat
notifications or identification, extending between now and Nov 2, 2004.
This window is based upon AQ threats to disrupt our national elections.
This window could potentially be extended to Inauguration Day in January
2005. 2. Attack Indicators 3. Current Terrorist Operations Iraq Italy Afghanistan Pakistan Israel Australia Saudi Arabia Iran Russia 8/31/04 Russian President Vladimir Putin today linked the
downing last week of two passenger airliners to Al-Qaeda. He said this proved
the presence of organised international terrorism on Russian soil. "The
fact that an international terrorist organization linked to al-Qaeda took
responsibility for the blowing up of two planes shows once again the link
between destructive elements in Chechnya and international terrorism,"
Mr Putin said in Sochi, Russia. United States 4. Attack method. 8/31/04 With Hal Lindsey’s recent commentary, the
specter of nukes has raised its head again. With the RNC going on and a
high concentration of supporters for the WOT as well as protestors (AQ doesn’t
care, just raises the body count), a major strike would be a coup. Under
current security measures, it would be near impossible to strike MSG with
an airliner or truck bomb. However, a nuke could be set off farther away
from the target (where there would be less chance of detection during set
up) while still causing significant causalities. Clearly, if they got them,
now would be the opportune time to use them. 5. Personnel 6. Significant meetings canceled: A. (8/31/04) No new cancellations. 7. Security has been heightened in specific cities GENERAL: Security in the NYC and surrounding areas is very
tight. 8. Military operations. 8/31/04 Only 4 carrier groups deployed, 1 is on standby,
3 back in port and 4 under going maintenance. 8/31/04 The F-117s are still deployed in S. Korea. 9. Dept of Homeland Scty. 10. Suspicious Domestic Incidents Not Currently
Linked to Specific Terrorism Attempts 8/31/04 An unidentified man attempted to get past security
guards to V. Pres Cheney last night. It was alleged that the man was carrying
a screwdriver-like tool. | |||||
