1. If AQ threats bear out - Precursor attacks in Italy and England. Specific targets have not been identified but the single most significant and symbolic target IMHO would be the Vatican. England would probably be parliament and/or buckingham palace. Then US would be hit.

2. Three month truce period for Europe ends Jul 11-15 depending on the calendar system used. We are now through most of day 1 of this window without event.

NOTE on 1&2 - If I read correctly the NEIN(?) analysis suggested that the threat letter/message regarding the truce of 3 months did not follow the common AQ/ Bin Laiden pattern - Some one please confirm. If so greater doubt arises for these dates . Still haven’t gotten confirmation.

3. The threat is for something big, devastating to hit US. This has been a common theme, with significant discourse on whether AQ has small nukes or the capability to deploy them. My views are below. However, a dirty bomb is not out of the question - mass panic as a goal. EOM will be covered at the end of the post.

4. Secty Tom Ridge’s trip to Israel canceled

5. Security has been heightened in specific cities - NYC, Philly, Seattle, LA, DC
5a Suspected targeted regions - Michigan, Wisconsin

6. The fleet and F117s are deployed. However, their deployment appears to have been planned to a certain extent. May be a coincidence. Haven’t heard if the B1s and B2s have been forward deployed.

7. Islamist chatter on the 'net warns of getting to safe areas, 30 day supplies of food/water. Uncertain reliability of the sources - could be psyops to get us freaked, knowing that others like us monitor them. However, if nukes were to be used, such a preparation would be common sense.

8. Trains and buses searched - Significant development in east coast towns.

9. Seaports and those many crossing over our borders in the news. Ports are getting a lot more security scrutiny. Diving teams are activily looking for mines, Coast Guard turing away ships as necessary.

10. Dept of Homeland Scty has held a briefing to the public as well as to Congress. Sen Tommy Dachel says that the report (classified) is very serious and could not conceive it being used for political purposes. Very concerning that the Minority leader would make such a statement in the midst of a heated campaign season.

11. Agencies of the government bureaucracy are rumored to be on alert footing (Mossad post). One TM post confirming that the source is relatively reliable.

12. No alerts noted at military facilities. Probably will be none until we go RED.

General comments/observations:

“Suitcase nuke” concerns. Nukes in general are high maintenance items. Half life of tritium is only 12 years for example. Plutonium is VERY poisonous. Maintenance of proper storage conditions (temp, humidity,etc) necessary to maintain readiness. A nuke of suit case size would be very difficult to maintain. Much is rumored about the soviets selling them to AQ, but one must realize that it could turn around and bite them too. We supported the mujahadeen in afganistan and they have turned around and attacked us. IF the soviets have supported AQ, they too face the blow back, especially how they behaived in Afganistan. I’m not sure one would sell something like a nuke to someone who could likely use it on you just as quickly as the US.

EOM. As I noted in #7, much of what is out there is probably related to psyops, most likely by AQ sympathizers. EOM has been beating his chest for some time now and his threats have been like the passing of gas. He is bacon grease and there are better cuts of pork out there.

One of the greatest fears of those of us who lived through the cold war and bomb drills is a nuclear attack. Numerous movies have been made that feed upon that fear. Pigs like EOM are just trying to milk that fear. Psyops.

1. Reevaluation of the July 11-15 window. No attack made during the window, however, recent announcements by AQ related groups seem to indicate that the window did mark the end of the truce with Europe and that probably the calendar method used was our standard calendar, not lunar. Secondly, the ‘truce’ period was probably legitimate, since follow-up messages from terrorists were published. Jihadist chatter indicates a heightened expectancy of something about to happen ‘soon’. We have no good window for Italy attack - See #2 below.

2. Threat Target(s).
A. Out recently by the same folks who claimed responsibility for the Madrid attacks is a threat to Italy. The communique states that this is Italy’s last warning, the next ‘communication’ will be the actual attack itself. This is still following the sequence identified earlier, that is Italy would be hit prior to the US. Furthermore, focus of the attack is still suspected to be Rome and very likely the Vatican.

B. There is some question if England will be hit prior to or simultaneously with the US. Fact that England is still in the top 3 targets continues to confirm earlier summaries of the desirability to strike them.

3. Attack method.
A. The threat is for something big, devastating to hit US. This has been a common theme, with significant discourse on whether AQ has small nukes or the capability to deploy them. However, a dirty bomb is not out of the question - mass panic as a goal.

B. Discussion in TM and from national news sources indicate continued AQ interest in aircraft hijacking. Thoughts range from using far more people to putting together a ‘weapon’ of some sort in a toilet. This weapon could be an explosive device or a chemical of some sort. One piece of the puzzle missing is how the terrorists would get past the reinforced doors to the cockpit.

4. Significant meetings canceled: